TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these stocks will be killed today, and attentive investors can get them on the cheap.
Oh my, Costco (NASDAQ: COST) (Cramer's Take). I didn't expect that one. That's the best -- it's a shocker. I can't recall how many years it has been since I have seen the words "well below" and "Costco" together.
You can see how it happened: Costco held out. They didn't raise prices. Almost everyone else is raising prices and many are losing customers -- look at Safeway (NYSE: SWY) (Cramer's Take) or Supervalu (NYSE: SVU) (Cramer's Take). But two held out: Costco and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take).
When you lump in the ridiculous price hikes that Costco had to take in its gasoline business, you see that it simply wasn't making much money selling anything.
As the second quarter earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, the bear market has investors jittery and prognosticators spinning out dire warnings. In the wake of mixed results from Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) kicking things off last week, here's a look at what Wall Street is expecting from many of the companies scheduled to report this coming week.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE): $1.80 EPS (36.6%) on sales of $6.4 billion (+53.0%)
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG): $4.74 EPS (24.9%) on sales of $3.9 billion (+41.6%)
Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK): 56 cents EPS (23.2%) on sales of $19.9 billion (+17.8%)
CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX): 90 cents EPS (21.1%) on sales of $2.9 billion (+12.8%)
Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR): 27 cents EPS (18.5%) on sales of $346.7 million (+8.4%)
IBM (NYSE: IBM): $1.82 EPS (+17.6%) on sales of $25.9 billion (+9.0%)
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY): 41 cents EPS (17.1%) on sales of $2.2 billion (+18.0%)
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Texas Industries, TransGlobe Energy and Level 3 Communications were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Stephens downgraded shares of Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI) to Equal Weight from Overweight as it believes higher energy costs will affect the company's ability to achieve its guidance. The firm lowered its target to $68 from $83.
Jefferies assumed coverage and downgraded shares of TransGlobe Energy (NYSE:TGA) to Hold from Buy as it sees limited upside until the company completes its seismic activity and can better quantify its exploratory reserve potential. The firm lowered its target to $5.25 from $6.50.
Citigroup downgraded Level 3 (NASDAQ: LVLT) to Sell from Hold as it believes the pullback in telecom valuations increases downside risk for the stock. Citigroup lowered their target price to $2.50 from $3.
Kroger (NYSE: KR) is one of the nation's largest retail grocery chains. It operates nearly 2,500 supermarkets and multi-department stores in 31 states, under such local banners as Kroger, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, Fry's, Dillons, QFC and City Market. The firm also operates about 778 convenience stores, 392 fine jewelry stores, 723 supermarket fuel centers and 41 food processing plants. Despite diversification moves, Kroger food stores still account for about 85 percent of sales. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) are major competitors.
The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 58 cents and revenues of $23.11 billion. Analysts had been expecting 55 cents and $22.32 billion. The EPS figure was a company record. Management also offered in-line guidance for FY09 earnings and said that about $643.6 million remained under the $1 billion stock repurchase program announced in January.
Shares in supermarket chain Safeway (NYSE:SWY) dropped 7% yesterday setting up investors with an interesting investment opportunity. The stock is off more than 25% from its' 52-week high. Investors were spooked about a slowdown in same store sales. I think investors need to take a second look at the company.
With an economic slowdown, many consumers will turn to home made food as opposed to eating out. This will be a big benefit to the supermarket. Another catalyst for the stock is that, unlike other food retailers like restaurants, they are able to pass on rising costs to the consumer. This will help keep their bottom line from dropping.
At these levels for investors looking for an inflation protected portfolio, you may want to take a look at Safeway.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 2/22/08.
Among companies reporting quarterly earnings on Thursday were Safeway Stores Inc. (NYSE: SWY), the largest food retailer in North America, and Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), one of the world's largest gold producers.
Despite ongoing efforts to upgrade the image of its stores, Safeway, which reported that fourth-quarter earnings in-line with the consensus estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, also reported that same-store sales slowed.
The quarterly earnings came to $301.1 million, or 68 cents per share, for the period that ended December 29, down 2% from $307.9 million, or 69 cents per share, in the same quarter of 2006, when tax benefits lifted results. Excluding that gain, earnings per share would have climbed by more than 11%. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 7% to $13.36 billion, which beat the analysts' average estimates.
Despite signs of a slowdown, the fourth quarter capped Safeway's most profitable year since 2001. The company earned $888.4 million, or $1.99 per share, on sales of $42.3 billion, compared to earnings of $870.6 million, or $1.94 per share, on revenue of $40.2 billion in 2006. For 2008, Safeway forecast earnings of $2.25 to $2.35 per share, in-line with analysts' expectations.
Safeway shares fell more than $3 in morning trading, reaching a new 52-week low of $28.80.
U.S. stock futures were higher this morning, looking to extend Wednesday's rally following the Federal Resereve's comments that the Fed's focus should remain on helping the economy, even at the expense of inflation. Still, the As the Fed has lowered its economic forecast, it seems committed to spurring growth.
Stocks had another roller-coaster session on Wednesday. Stocks started the day with declines following further signs of inflation and a non-encouraging housing report, as well as oil trading near $100 a barrel. The market then reversed course, especially after the Fed released the minutes from the last policy meeting that indicated the Fed is ready for further rate cuts. That boosted stocks and they finished higher with the Dow industrial closing 90 points higher, or 0.73%, the S&P 500 adding 11 points, or 0.83%, and the Nasdaq composite rising20 points, or 0.91%.
Several economic indicators are due out today.
At 8:30 a.m. EST, weekly jobless claims are due.
January leading indicators will be reported at 10:00 a.m., along with manufacturing in the Philadelphia region for February.
RBC upgraded Baidu (NADSAQ: BIDU) to "outperform" from "sector perform" according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Morgan Stanley downgraded Level 3 (NASDAQ: LVLT) to "underweight" from "equal weight."
Safeway (NYSE: SWY) raised to "neutral" from "sell" at UBS, according to24/7 Wall St. The news also reported that UBS (NYSE: UBS) was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at Deutsche Bank.
Chattem (NASDAQ: CHTT) provides over-the-counter drugs, personal care products and dietary supplements. Offerings include such pain treatments as dental analgesic Benzodent, topical analgesic Aspercreme, muscle pain reliever Flexall, menstrual symptom reliever Pamprin, analgesic Icy Hot and itch medicine Cortizone-10. The company also makes Melatonex and Unisom sleep aids, Gold Bond medicated powder, Selsun Blue dandruff shampoo, ACT mouthwash and BullFrog sunblock. Chattem sells its products in eighty countries, through such merchandisers as CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), Safeway (NYSE: SWY) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG).
The company surprised investors last week, when it reported Q4 EPS of 76 cents and revenues of $100.6 million. Analysts had been expecting 65 cents and $100.5 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $4.00-$4.20 ($3.83 consensus).
The market's choppy/consolidating pattern (or perhaps worse) continues, with several unknowns weighing on the minds of investors. It goes without saying then, that in this market defensive stocks represent a prudent addition to almost any portfolio. The grocery store sector is a dependable defensive, and in this category, Safeway is worth a review.
Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) is one of North America's largest grocery store chains, with more than 1,700 stores, primarily in the West, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic United States. Safeway also operates the Vons, Dominick's Finer Foods, Carr-Gottstein (Alaska), Genuardi's, and Randall's Food Market Chains (Texas). SWY also has an international presence via ownership of about 125 Casa Ley food/variety stores in Mexico.
Other positives: Safeway has struck the right balance between its high quality/wide selection Safeway stores and Safeway supercenters: the former, via remodeling, better reflect middle-income customers' needs, and the later have displayed solid traffic. This winning formula leads many analysts to conclude that Safeway should be able to build on its 8% grocery store sector market share.
The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on intensifying competition: wholesale operations and warehouses represent the biggest threat, as they boast comparable economies of scale.
The First Call mean rating for SWY is: Hold [15 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $39.00 [high: $42, low: $34].
Stock Analysis: Safeway is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from SWY's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $23.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sprint Nextel, Safeway, PharmaNet Development, Millennium Pharmaceutical and Telefonica were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Wachovia upgraded shares of Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company is within six months of reaching a sustainable turnaround in subscriber growth and that investor expectations can not get much lower.
CIBC upgraded shares of Safeway Stores Inc (NYSE: SWY) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer after the company's strong quarter in a challenging environment.
Jefferies raised its rating on PharmaNet Development Group Inc (NASDAQ: PDGI) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company should achieve leverage in margins after executing its turnaround.
Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: MLNM) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird. The firm said expectations for Millennium and Velcade are low and would be buyers for the quarter given the ASH meeting and downstream pipeline visibility.
Telefonica SA (NYSE: TEF) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup following the company's earnings growth guidance.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Centene Corporation (NYSE: CNC) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Lehman Brothers.
When it comes to O.T.C. drug products, folks are often surprised to learn that a single Tennessee outfit is responsible for nearly thirty of the best known names. It was founded 128 years ago, as the Chattanooga Medicine Company.
Chattem (NASDAQ: CHTT) provides over-the-counter drugs, personal care products and dietary supplements. Offerings include such pain treatments as dental analgesic Benzodent, topical analgesic Aspercreme, muscle pain reliever Flexall, menstrual symptom reliever Pamprin and analgesic Icy Hot. The company also makes sleep aid Melatonex, medicated powder Gold Bond and Mudd facial masks. Chattem sells its products in eighty countries, through such merchandisers as CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), Safeway (NYSE: SWY) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG).
The company surprised investors last week, when it reported Q3 EPS of 83 cents and revenues of $109 million. Analysts had been expecting 74 cents and $106 million. Management also guided FY07 EPS to $2.96-3.06 ($2.95 consensus) and FY08 EPS to $3.69-3.89 ($3.56 consensus).
When you are shopping for food, you like to know that the store you are in has a long-standing reputation for reliability. There is a chain based in Cincinnati that has such a reputation. It has been filling grocery bags for 124 years.
Kroger (NYSE: KR) is one of the nation's largest retail grocery chains. It operates nearly 2,500 supermarkets and multi-department stores in 31 states, under such local banners as Kroger, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, Fry's, Dillons, QFC and City Market. The firm also operates about 780 convenience stores, 406 fine jewelry stores, 664 supermarket fuel centers and 42 food processing plants. Despite diversification moves, Kroger food stores still account for about 85% of sales. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) are major competitors.
The firm pleased investors earlier in the week, when it reported fiscal Q2 EPS of 38 cents and revenues of $16.14 billion. Analysts had been expecting 34 cents and $16 billion. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $1.64-1.67, versus Street consensus of $1.66.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: dELiA's Inc. (DLIA), Hearst-Argyle TV (HTV) and Safeway (SWY) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Friedman Billings downgraded dELiA's Inc (NASDAQ: DLIA) to Market Perform from Outperform citing the difficult near-term environment.
Deutsche Bank would use Hearst-Argyle TV's (NYSE: HTV) tender offer for the remaining shares of HTV at $23.50 as an opportunity to sell shares and cut the stock to Hold from Buy.
Merrill cut Safeway (NYSE: SWY) shares to Sell from Neutral citing the slowing California economy and the potential threat from Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) entering the California market with its new Tesco (OTC: TSCDY) format...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Vimicro (NASDAQ: VIMC) was cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these stocks will be killed today, and attentive investors can get them on the cheap.
As the second quarter earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, the bear market has investors jittery and prognosticators spinning out dire warnings. In the wake of mixed results from 
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U.S. stock futures were higher this morning, looking to extend Wednesday's rally following the Federal Resereve's comments that the Fed's focus should remain on helping the economy, even at the expense of inflation. Still, the As the Fed has 
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